2 024 will be remembered as a piv- otal year for the U.S. casual-dining industry. On one hand, the year was de- fined by a pair of high-flying success stories at the very top of the market. Texas Road- house sales soared by 14.7%, propelling it into the No. 1 spot among U.S. casual-din- ing chains. Chili’s Grill and Bar completed a miraculous turnaround, increasing sales by 15% and moving into the No. 3 spot. The success at those two chains was con- trasted by struggles at many others. Among the top 20 casual-dining brands, nine saw sales decline, and one, Red Lobster, filed for bankruptcy. The sector continues to battle shifting consumer habits. Americans have generally cut back on dining out due to inflation, and when they do use restaurants, they are in- creasingly getting their food to go. That has had an outsize effect on full-service concepts. The result was a poor year for casual-din- ing chains overall. Sales increased just 1.4% in 2024, and traffic fell 1%, according to data from Technomic’s Top 500 Chain Restaurant Report. The only restaurant segment that did worse was family dining, where sales were flat year over year. It was a significant slowdown from a year earlier, when Top 500 casual-dining sales were up 4.7%, mostly thanks to higher prices. And for the top 20 chains—which account for nearly 83% of all Top 500 casual-dining sales—growth averaged just 0.87%. That was despite strong results from Texas Roadhouse, Chili’s and Cooper’s Hawk Winery and Res- taurants, where sales rose 12.5%. But those bright spots were drowned out by some very bad performances. Sales at No. 9 Red Lobster plummeted 22.7% as it filed for bankruptcy and closed 131 locations. Hooters sales fell 16% ahead of a bankrupt- cy filing this March. And TGI Fridays sales plunged by a whopping 43.5% after it closed half of its restaurants and filed for bankrupt - cy in November. That knocked the chain down 12 spots, from No. 17 in 2023 to No. 29 last year. These brands hit rock bottom due to se- vere traffic declines and in some cases mis - management that made it impossible to ser- vice their debt. Meanwhile, other chains that had been treading water finally succumbed to market pressures. Sales at Applebee’s fell 5.8%, and Outback Steakhouse saw a nearly 4% drop. That prompted both to make leadership changes and begin turnaround efforts. They were not the only ones. Red Lobster, Red Robin, BJ’s Restaurants, P.F. Chang’s and Dave & Buster’s have all hired new leaders
2024 SALES GROWTH BY SEGMENT Fast casual boomed while casual dining struggled.
Source: Technomic Top 500 Chain Restaurant ReportGet the dataCreated with Datawrapper
over the past year and are in various phases of revitalization. Altogether, almost half of the 20 largest casual-dining chains are going through some sort of turnaround. There are a few reasons for these widespread problems. The first is simple: Fewer con - sumers are going out to eat. A recent study from the National Restaurant Association found that 75% of all restaurant transactions are now for takeout, drive-thru or delivery. That’s obviously not good for casual dining, which gets the vast majority of its sales from customers who dine in. And when people do go out, they are increasingly gravitating toward a select group of restaurants that they trust to deliver a good experience. That is reflected in the success of chains like Texas Roadhouse and Chili’s, which have invested heavily in strong operations and food quality, as well as experiential brands like Cooper’s Hawk, Fogo de Chao and KPOT Korean BBQ and Hot Pot. Brands that have been watching those chains’ success from the sidelines are now work- ing to replicate it. Most are taking a back-to-basics approach, focusing on core menu items, simplifying their operations and clarifying their brand for consumers. Many are launching value meals in an attempt to lure price-conscious customers. They’re also investing more in social media in hopes of catching on with younger, digitally savvy consumers. Mike Spanos, the new CEO of Outback parent Bloomin’ Brands, summed up the chain’s strategy this way during an earnings call in May: “The entire value proposition, we got to fix it. And it’s a function of food quality. It’s a function of value. Value is a function of price and benefits. And there’s a consistency of execution,” he said. “We’re very much in the early stages of the turnaround, but it’s all of that combined.” In most cases, the playbooks bear a striking resemblance to the one Chili’s used to ascend from mediocrity into arguably the most celebrated brand in the industry. It stripped down its menu to highlight a handful of key items, streamlined operations and launched a $10.99 combo meal backed by clever marketing. It also went viral on TikTok for its Triple Dipper appetizer platter, which helped drive in new, younger customers. The result was one of its most successful years ever. The casual-dining segment was due for a reckoning, and it arrived in 2024. Many brands hit the reset button. Now the question is whether they can truly recover.
TOP 10 CASUAL-DINING CHAINS It was a tough year for large chains, with two big exceptions.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Texas Roadhouse
$5,488,007 $5,152,300 $4,571,300 $4,104,700 $4,054,360 $3,011,300 $2,718,812 $2,661,627 $1,680,500 $1,498,600
14.7%
Olive Garden
0.8%
Chili’s Grill & Bar
15.0% −5.8%
Applebee’s
Buffalo Wild Wings LongHorn Steakhouse Outback Steakhouse The Cheesecake Factory
2.4% 7.2%
−3.9%
2.6%
Red Lobster Red Robin
−22.7%
10
−4.2%
Source: Technomic Top 500 Chain Restaurant ReportGet the dataCreated with Datawrapper
JULY 2025 RESTAURANT BUSINESS
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