Restaurant Business Quarterly | Q4 2025

OCTOBER 2025

INTOUCH DELIVERY STUDY:

Delivery is cheaper, but it’s also slower P. 20

Want to improve your delivery business? P . 26 | Always Pumpkin Spice season P . 32

JONATHAN MAZE EDITOR-IN-CHIEF

WELCOME EDITOR’S

JMAZE@WINSIGHTMEDIA.COM @JONATHANMAZE

I am an old print veteran who loves newspapers and magazines and hates to see them go away in favor of the online version. Yet businesses have to evolve.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQubhiONsRE

WE LOOK FORWARD TO SEEING YOU ALL ONLINE.

CONTENTS OCTOBER 2025

TECHNOLOGY RESTAURANT AI GETS A MUCH-NEEDED REALITY CHECK..............................................36

COVER STORY DELIVERY IS CHEAPER, BUT IT’S ALSO SLOWER..........................................................20 SPECIAL REPORT FIRST-PARTY DELIVERY MAY NOT HAVE THE ADVANTAGES RESTAURANTS THINK IT DOES...........................................................24 WANT TO IMPROVE YOUR DELIVERY BUSINESS? DON’T FORGET THE SAUCE, AND TOSS IN A LITTLE EXTRA..................................................26 MENU DIRTY SODAS ARE MAKING A SPLASH ON MENUS, FROM DRIVE-THRUS TO CASUAL DINING............................................................28 MEET THE CHICAGO COFFEE SHOP WHERE IT’S ALWAYS PUMPKIN SPICE SEASON...........................................................32

FINANCE A WEAKENING JOB MARKET SPELLS MOSTLY TROUBLE FOR RESTAURANTS....................................................4 RESTAURANTS PROFITABILITY HAS TAKEN A HIT SINCE THE PANDEMIC.................................6 OPERATIONS CHECK OUT SOME OF THE MOST-ANTICIPATED RESTAURANT OPENINGS FOR THE BACK HALF OF 2025..............................................................8

DON’T OVERLOOK TAKOUT’S ROLE IN THE CASUAL-DIING COMEBACK...........................38

MINNESOTA STATE FAIR VENDORS CASH IN DURING A 12-DAY FOOD FRENZY....................12

EVERY DAY, A CAR SLAMS INTO A RESTAURANT SOMEWHERE. OPERATORS NEED TO TAKE ACTION.............................................................18

FROM OUR COLUMNISTS

THE BOTTOM LINE: MCDONALD’S DROPS A BOMB ON THE FAST-FOOD INDUSTRY............................................40 TECH CHECK: RESTAURANT TECH’S NEXT BILLION-DOLLAR QUESTION.................................................................42 BEHIND THE MENU: A GROUNDSWELL OF DEMAND LANDS A SMASH BURGER ON HOPDODDY’S PERMANENT MENU.....................................................................................................................................................44

Photo: Nico Heins/Midjourney Cover Photo: Nico Heins/Midjourney

OCTOBER 2025 RESTAURANT BUSINESS

FINANCE

A WEAKENING JOB MARKET SPELLS MOSTLY TROUBLE FOR RESTAURANTS

The Bottom Line: The restaurant industry is already contending with a consumer dining out less frequently. How will it handle a consumer less likely to have a job?

BY JOHNATHAN MAZE

A WEAKENING JOB MARKET IS BAD FOR THE ECONOMY. IMAGE: SHUTTERSTOCK

RESTAURANT BUSINESS OCTOBER 2025

PHOTO: ENVATO

I n September, the federal government released a jobs report that could only be described as ugly. While restaurants added 11,000 jobs, continuing their run of relatively slow growth, the economy as a whole added 22,000. That probably shouldn’t have been that much of a surprise. A lot of data has suggested a weakening labor market. There are more people unemployed than there are available jobs, for instance. Layoffs soared 39% in August and are taking place at a rate unseen since the pandemic. A weak jobs market should make life a bit easier for restaurants looking for help. But that should be considered cold comfort given that restaurants aren’t exactly swimming in customers right now. A weak jobs market will almost certainly make sales and traffic that much more difficult for a broader set of operators. At the end of the day, the best indicator of industry sales is a consumer that has a job and income. If fewer consumers have jobs, there are more consumers cutting back, and that’s bad for business.

As we noted last week, the layoffs could help explain weakening sales at fast-casual chains like Chipotle, Sweetgreen and Cava. Those chains tend to have higher incomes than the fast-food brands that have heretofore struggled with traffic. The most recent labor report only adds to that concern. Many of the industries cutting jobs include professional services, manufacturing, construction, government and finance, industries that tend to pay better. In many respects, the weak job market should be expected by this point. The economy has withstood a lot over the past couple of years, including soaring inflation, consumer reaction to that inflation and a presidential election. Tariffs have driven up the costs of doing business and damaged consumer confidence. Immigration policies this year have hurt sales and labor availability in immigrant-heavy markets. All that has come on top of a low- income consumer that entered the year cutting back on dining at fast-food markets. But how does the restaurant industry respond to an economy like this one?

As it is, restaurants are heavily pushing value. More restaurant chains continue to push new discounts all the time. McDonald’s is lowering prices on its combo meals and bringing back Extra Value Meals. Subway is on television all the time pushing low-priced meals. One big reason casual-dining restaurant chains are seeing improvement now is their marketing of value offers. Even Chipotle, with its group-ordering Groupotle concept, gave customers a $10 digital coupon to try it. The simple fact is, a large and probably growing number of consumers need to be incentivized in some way to dine out. A lot of the time, that’s through value. Periodically, chains can get customers in through innovative marketing, such as Wendy’s Spongebob collaboration or McDonald’s Minecraft meal or whatever thing Taco Bell is doing. If the labor market continues its tepid pace, or it gets worse—and it definitely could get worse—the industry could be in for a rougher ride than anybody thought.

OCTOBER 2025 RESTAURANT BUSINESS

FINANCE

According to the National Restaurant Association, median profitability at all restaurants remains lower than it was before the pandemic, despite historic increases in menu prices. RESTAURANT PROFITABILITY HAS TAKEN A HIT SINCE THE PANDEMIC

While many operators have raised prices at above the rate of inflation, it has often not been enough to offset their own higher costs for food and labor. “You don’t want to raise menu prices too much because you’re going to turn off the consumer,” Chad Moutray, chief economist for the National Restaurant Association, said for an upcoming episode of the Restaurant Business finance podcast A Deeper Dive. “You’re going to affect overall traffic. And so the overall bottom line has gotten squeezed.” The data also highlights a key reality in the restaurant industry: A lot of seemingly successful, independent restaurants are only a couple of bad months away from bank- ruptcy. To wit: Median income at the lowest quartile of full-service restaurants was a loss of 2.1% of their revenues. At limited-service restaurants, that bottom quartile lost 0.3%. Restaurant industry traffic has been broadly weak in recent years, due largely to consumer frustration over prices, particular- ly among lower-income consumers. Moutray suggested that there are “two Americas,” and that while upper-middle and higher-income consumers are doing well, others are not. “It’s certainly where you’re seeing some of the weakness, particularly in the fast-food segment and others,” he said. Still, the weakened profitability could make it more difficult for some restaurants to ad - dress that issue. Driving much of the industry’s costs are labor. The cost of salaries and wages, in-

cluding employee benefits, cost the median full-service restaurant operator 36.5% of their revenue. That was far higher than the median labor cost at limited-service restaurants of 31.7%. But limited-service restaurants’ food and beverage costs were higher than the cost at full-service restaurants, 31.3% compared with 30%. Median occupancy costs at full-service restaurants was 5.7%. At limited-service res- taurants it’s 5.2%. The association publishes the data ab- stract every couple of years to give opera- tors a sense of where their costs are relative to the broader industry. The association has been publishing them more frequently since the pandemic, because of the impact that era and its recovery has had on the restaurant business. The overall results suggest that restau- rants remain in a relatively fragile state, even though consumers spend more at res- taurants as a percentage of their total food spending than they ever have. Still, Moutray said, there are some silver linings. While many restaurants are closing, there are usually others willing to take their place. “The recent data I’ve seen on openings and closures shows that there are more openings than closures,” he said. “Despite these really low profit margins, you still are having people who want to get into this busi- ness. That gives me a little hope.”

JONATHAN MAZE

JONATHAN.MAZE@INFORMA.COM

R estaurant profitability remains be - low where it was before the pan- demic, challenging the industry at a time when inflation-related traffic challenges are forcing many companies to push more discounts and value offers. According to the National Restaurant Association’s latest data abstract, median in- come before taxes at full-service restaurants is just 2.8% of revenues, compared with 4% in 2019. At limited-service restaurants, income before taxes was 4% of revenues, compared with 6% in 2019. The weakened profitability has come de - spite historically high increases in menu pric- es, which has turned off a certain segment of the U.S. consumer. Yet those increases hav- en’t been enough to offset restaurant profits. It also signals the difficulty many opera - tors have been in over the past few years.

RESTAURANT BUSINESS OCTOBER 2025

OPERATIONS

STARR RESTAURANT GROUP’S BORROMINI OPENED ON AUG. 25 ON PHILADELPHIA’S RITTENHOUSE SQUARE. | PHOTO COURTESY OF STARR RESTAURANT GROUP

CHECK OUT SOME OF THE MOST- ANTICIPATED RESTAURANT OPENINGS FOR THE BACK HALF OF 2025 Despite the chaotic economic climate, independent restaurant creators keep new concepts coming. Here are five new concepts, and a sixth making a fundamental change, capturing national attention.

I t’s hard out there for independent restaurants. But that isn’t stopping Big Name Chefs and restaurateurs from creating new concepts. From a new Korean-Italian restaurant coming from Nancy Silverton’s culinary team, to Stephen Starr’s near complete takeover of Philadelphia’s Rittenhouse Square with the new Borromini, the second half of 2025 promises to bring some long-awaited new restaurants across the country. Among them will be the return of Babbo, the landmark New York restaurant made famous by Mario Batali with chef Mark Ladner on the opening team in the kitchen. Batali, of course, went on to face accusations of sexual assault and harassment and divested his shares in the restaurant company that included Babbo. This year, however, restaurateur Starr acquired Babbo (and sister concept Lupa). He is working with Ladner to rework the menu, and the restaurant is being renovated with the plan to open next month, but few details are available. Here’s a look at some of the potentially game-changing restaurants coming onto the scene in the back half of the year.

LISA JENNINGS

LISA.JENNINGS@INFORMA.COM

RESTAURANT BUSINESS OCTOBER 2025

The couple lives in Koreatown, so Lelah said they are working hard to create a concept that really speaks to LA, a mecca for both Italian and Korean food. With only 35 seats, Lapaba will have only bar seating, except for a private room for larger parties. The restaurant will have a dedicated pasta room for in-house pasta making. On the menu will be dishes like a Cacio e Pepe made with dduk, or Korean rice cakes. Kim said he fell in love with the pasta dish while in Rome. “To me, it was life changing,” he said. “I think subbing out a pasta with the rice cakes is a no brainer. They really soak up the flavor.” Also coming is a variation of what is known in Korea as “Army Stew,” or Budae- jjigae, a dish believed to have originated during the Korean war out of surplus American military rations, like Spam, American cheese, hot dogs and instant noodles. A kimchi suppli (rice ball street food snack), for example, will be stuffed with Spam and mozzarella. “We wanted to open something that’s approachable to people, where they don’t feel intimidated,” said Lelah. “Everyone says they want to open a neighborhood spot, but we really think this speaks to the neighborhood.” Onwuachi’s restaurants are known for storytelling, touching on the New York- raised chef’s Jamaican roots. The name “Maroon” refers to the African slaves owned by the Spanish colonial occupiers in the 17th Century. When the British took control, some of those slaves were freed by the Spaniards and escaped to the mountains, rather than submit to British rule. They became known as Maroons and are believed to be the creators of jerk seasoning, made with the herbs and chilis that grew wild. Maroon will be a steakhouse, though details on the menu were not yet available at press time. The restaurant moves into the space previously occupied by José Andrés’ Bazaar Meat, which is reportedly moving to another spot on the Strip (Venetian Resort). “Expanding my restaurant portfolio outside the East Coast is a huge milestone in my career,” said Onwuachi, in a statement. “I’m thankful to be welcomed into such a dynamic culinary community, located right in the heart of Vegas. It’s beyond overdue to have more Afro-Caribbean restaurants on the Strip, and I’m grateful for the platform because this will mean so much to so many.”

A RENDERING OF THE STREETFRONT OF LAPABA COMING TO LOS ANGELES. IMAGE COURTESY OF LAPABA

LAPABA Los Angelas

Scheduled to open in October in Los Angeles’ lively Koreatown, this is the latest venture from the Nancy Silverton empire. It’s a partnership with siblings Tanya and Joe Bastianich, along with Robert Kim, of ABSteak fame (and Mama Lion and Norikaya). Lapaba is a portmanteau for La Pasta Bar (such wordplay is common in Korean culture), and this concept brings together culinary influences from Italy and Korea to create a concept that is very Los Angeles. In the kitchen are husband-and-wife team McKenna Lelah and Matthew Kim (no relation to Robert), who met while working at Silverton’s Osteria Mozza in 2014. They went on to work both separately and together with chefs like Grant Achatz (Next) and Dave Beran (Dialogue, Pasjoli) and now Lapaba will be their first concept created together.

MAROON Las Vegas

Kwame Onwuachi has cemented his stardom with the New York restaurant Tatiana, and the Washington, D.C. concept Dōgon. Later this year, he brings his exploration of the Afro- Caribbean diaspora to Las Vegas with the planned Maroon by Kwame Onwuachi, scheduled to open in the Sahara Las Vegas.

KWAME ONWUACHI IS BRINGING A STEAKHOUSE TO LAS VEGAS. PHOTO COURTESY OF KOHSHIN FINLEY

OCTOBER 2025 RESTAURANT BUSINESS

CREEPIES Chicago

David and Anna Posey have earned acclaim individually (he at Blackbird and she at Publican, both of One Off Hospitality) and together, with their Michelin-starred restaurant Elske, opened in 2016. Now, next door to Elske in Chicago’s West Loop, the couple in late August opened a second concept called Creepies. The name is an inside joke between Anna and David that kind of stuck. The menu is described as neo-bistro fare with Midwestern influences. Opening bites, for example, include warm brie gougères, as well as tomatoes and peaches with crispy tapenade and labneh. Among the entrees, roasted chicken with liver and wine sauce; roasted lamb with Swiss chard and herbs de provence. And, for dessert, a Raspberry Sherbert Meringue Cake with buttermilk.

THE NEW CREEPIES IS NEXT DOOR TO THE ACCLAIMED RESTAURANT ELSKE IN CHICAGO. | PHOTO COURTESY OF GALDO PHOTO

AMAZÓNICO MIAMI Miami

The Amazon is a very long river and it meanders through a lot of culinary territory. Husband-and-wife restaurateurs Silva and Marta Seco explored that notion with the restaurant Amazónico, which launched in Madrid in 2016 Later the concept grew with locations in London, Dubai, Monte Carlo and, soon, Miami, where Amazónico is scheduled to open later this month. It will be the first in the U.S. Details on the menu were not available, but it’s going to be a big restaurant, with three floors and a rooftop, seating nearly 400 diners. On the second floor: a bar and lounge with a DJ playing “elec-tropical sounds.” The design will give the impression of dining in the rainforest, with dark wood, volcanic stone and lots of green.

AMAZONICO’S DESIGN, MUSIC AND CUISINE ARE INFLUENCED BY BRAZIL IN THE 1930S. | RENDERING COURTESY OF AMAZONICO MIAMI

RESTAURANT BUSINESS OCTOBER 2025

BORROMINI RISTORANTE Philadelphia Stephen Starr is one of the top-grossing restaurateurs in the country, and his concepts span the East Coast, from New York to Miami. But Philadelphia is his hometown, and his company Starr Restaurant Group has shaped the city’s fine-dining landscape. Open this month is his latest addition to Philadelphia’s Rittenhouse Square, where he already operates the French bistro Parc and the high-end steakhouse Barclay Prime (as well as others near the square). Now open is the 200-seat Italian trattoria Borromini, which was developed with executive chef Julian Baker in partnership with Ladner, who created a 100-layer lasagna for the restaurant. Designed by restaurateur Keith McNally (Balthazar) with Ian McPheely, Borromini is reportedly a $20 million space sprawling two floors and about 15,000-square feet. There’s a two-story mural created to look like an ancient fresco of Pompeii. On the menu are classics like Carbonara; Spaghetti al Pomodoro; Tortelloni di Ricotta in sage brown butter with parmigiano and toasted pine nuts; and Osso Buco di Vitello. Los Angeles chef Silverton (who partnered with Start to bring her Osteria Mozza to Washington, D.C.), reportedly contributed focaccia di Recco with stracchino cheese to the menu.

ITALIAN CLASSICS ARE ON THE MENU AT BORROMINI, AS WELL AS MARK LADNER’S 100-LAYER LASAGNA. | PHOTO COURTESY OF STARR RESTAURANT GROUP

ELEVEN MADISON PARK New York

This restaurant, of course, isn’t new. But on Oct. 14, this iconic New York restaurant will be switching back to a menu that includes meat after four years of eschewing animal products. Don’t be expecting a meat orgy. The restaurant’s website indicates the plant-based menu will remain the primary offering, but guests will have an option to include select animal or seafood proteins in a few of the seven to nine courses. That might include an oyster, a bit of lobster or honey-lavender glazed duck, according to The New York Times. Chef and owner Daniel Humm is also considering a chicken dish. In an Instagram post, Humm wrote, “Change is fundamental to who we are and how we grow.” Humm’s decision to go plant based was driven by concerns about climate change, and it was a bold swing. The restaurant in 2022 became the first to earn three Michelin stars for an entirely plant-based menu. But, as he approached his 20th anniversary with Eleven Madison Park, Humm wrote the move “unintentionally kept people out. This is the opposite of what we believe hospitality to be.” After listening to feedback, Humm said the decision was made to em- brace choice. “Eating together is the essence of who we are, and I’ve learned that for me to truly champion plant-based cooking, I need to create an environment where everyone feels welcome around the table,” wrote Humm.

CHEF AND OWNER DANIEL HUMM OF ELEVEN MADISON PARK IN NEW YORK. PHOTO: SHUTTERSTOCK

OCTOBER 2025 RESTAURANT BUSINESS

OPERATIONS

MINNESOTA STATE FAIR VENDORS CASH IN DURING A 12-DAY FOOD FRENZY

RESTAURANT BUSINESS OCTOBER 2025

CUSTOMERS WILL CLOG STREETS TO BUY A CONE OF COOKIES FROM SWEET MARTHA’S COOKIE JAR. | PHOTO BY JONATHAN MAZE

E very year, in the 12 days leading to Labor Day, about 2 million people will walk through the gates of the Minnesota State Fair. Most of the people who visit come just once. A few visit more than once. And then there are people like Mike Henderson. Each morning of the event, Henderson boards a bus near his St. Paul home and rides it to the fairgrounds. He’ll spend six to eight hours there. “What better way is there to get your Fitbit steps in?” he said. In 2021, he walked more than 371,000 steps and 174 miles over those 12 days. Henderson has his favorite foods, like the Gizmo Sandwich, a ground beef and Italian sausage behemoth covered in red sauce and melted cheese. He will try many of the new foods at the fair every year, sometimes sharing them with friends, many of whom are frequent fairgoers themselves. He knows the secrets to avoiding some of the long lines that develop when the event gets busy, though he refuses to divulge what they are, for fear that they will no longer be secrets. “You get inside those fairgrounds, and you’re in a different world,” he said. “Everything that’s going on in the world you block out. It’s its own little unique universe. It’s a great way to escape reality.” The Minnesota State Fair isn’t the biggest state fair in the country, but it does have the distinction of being the most intense. More than 150,000 people, on average, will walk through one of the fair’s entrances every day over that 12- day period, about 50% more than the State Fair of Texas, which runs for about a month. The busiest days can bring in 250,000 or more. More than 270,000 people visited the event one Saturday in 2018. There are some 1,000 vendors at the fair, everything from a Shamwow towel sales booth to a Slingshot ride that hurls two riders 200 feet in the air at $40 per person. There are grandstand concerts and 4H demonstrations along with the requisite farm animals and carnival rides. Yet nobody talks about what infomercial booth they visited at the fair. They always talk about what they ate. They plan in advance, scour the Blue Ribbon Bargain Book for deals, analyze the fair’s annual announcement of new food items, and scrutinize reviews in local publications or on social media. Everybody has their selection of items they try every year, and maybe one or two new items they want to try. And then like Mike Henderson, they try and walk it all off. The Minnesota State Fair is, as much as anything else, a food event.

The Minnesota State Fair can bring in 2 million visitors over a 12-day period. For the food vendors, it can be big business, where a cookie stand can make as much as an In-N-Out restaurant does in a year.

BY JONATHAN MAZE

JONATHAN.MAZE@INFORMA.COM

OCTOBER 2025 RESTAURANT BUSINESS

MIKE HENDERSON | PHOTO COURTESY OF MIKE HENDERSON

For the 280 food vendors at the fair, which sell some 1,600 different items, those 12 days can be big business. Its top vendors can make $1 million or more. The biggest and most successful, Sweet Martha’s Cookie Jar, does nearly $5 million. In 12 days. Or about as much as an In-N-Out restaurant does in one year. Danny and Kris O’Gara made enough in those 12 days at their permanent booth, O’Gara’s at the Fair, that they opted not to reopen their stand-alone restaurant in 2019 after it was temporarily closed to make way for a new development. “We wake up every morning thinking how we are this blessed to be at the fair,” Danny O’Gara said. Blessed might be a good way of putting it. “It’s tough to get in,” Danielle Dullinger, who manages food and beverage at the fair, said in an interview. The fair ends at the start of September. Vendors are invoiced at the end of the month. In November, it will invite them back. Most will return, and typically at the same location. By April, the fair will have an idea how many openings there are, which is typically around five to 10 every year. The fair fills that small number of openings from about 700 applications. So, vendors have about a 1% chance of getting in. And everybody has the same chance, whether they’ve been on file for 25 years or 25 days. “The common misconception is we have this waiting list,”

MARTHA ROSSINI | PHOTO COURTESY OF SWEET MARTHA’S COOKIE JAR

Dullinger said. The fair looks through all the applications and chooses vendors based on a variety of factors, like the location, the utilities at the specific site, as well as what’s offered nearby. The fair doesn’t want to put a cheese curd vendor next to another cheese curd vendor. There must be “geographic balance of product.” The fair wants the booths to look good. “We really want you to look pretty put together,”

RESTAURANT BUSINESS OCTOBER 2025

Dullinger said. And it wants the vendors to know what they’re doing. This isn’t the place to get your start. “We do bring in 2 million people over the course of 12 days,” she said. “We need you to be able to keep up.” The fair looks for unique products. There are eight new vendors this year, including alcohol-free drink vendor Urban Glow Mocktails, taking advantage of a huge drink trend right now. There are new vendors featuring lumpia, or Filipino fried spring rolls, one that serves Hungarian chimney cakes that are filled with ice cream or other treats, coffee and beignets, and a Jamaican vendor that serves oxtail. Plenty of the food, both new items being offered and those from new vendors, is fried, such as the “Tater Kegs” from Greater Tater, or jumbo, fried tater tots in flavors like bacon

jalapeno, reuben and “cheese bomb.” Not all of it is fried, and that’s just the way the fair likes it. “What’s very cool about fairs, a lot of them do have these fried options,” Dullinger said. “We’re not hating on those at all. But we’ve found we’re not just the freaky fried fair food fest. We truly are a place to try unique culinary items.” But it does help that the food can be enjoyed while walking. “On a stick is very important,” Dullinger said. There are about 80 items on a stick, including deep fried cookie dough, falafel, pork chops, salad, hot dish and alligator sausage. New stick-held items this year include Shrimp and Pork toast on a stick and “Grandma Doreen’s Dessert Dog” featuring vanilla ice cream between two pieces of coffee cake, on a stick.

Healthy does help, and the fair is scattered with vegetarian and vegan options such as hummus bowls. And the fair also reflects Minnesota’s increasingly diverse population, so there is more Hmong, Somali and Caribbean options. “We want to make sure you can experience your own food here at the fair,” said Dullinger, who admits that, as someone who is at the fair every day, having some healthier options is a good thing. The fair is older than the state itself—it was founded as a territory fair in 1854—and it’s been located in the same spot halfway between Minneapolis and St. Paul since 1885, a spot that is now landlocked. Mapping that site with new items and addressing the needs of those 2 million people, while achieving the variety and balance the fair wants, can be

THE MINNESOTA STATE FAIR CAN BRING ENORMOUS CROWDS, ESPECIALLY ON WEEKENDS. | PHOTO BY JONATHAN MAZE

difficult. “It’s like a puzzle piece,” Dullinger said. Vendors frequently start with small locations and, if they are successful, can graduate into bigger locations, more locations or both. The Pronto Pups are sold in eight small sites scattered throughout the fair. It generated $2.3 million from those eight sites last year, according to the fair. Pickles are popular. The Perfect Pickle, which has two sites and specializes in fried pickles, among other things, made $1.5 million from two sites last year. Then there’s Rick’s Pizza, which started selling a pickle pizza in 2022, generating consistent lines that could span a block or two. They didn’t die down in subsequent years. “He’s putting out as much product as he can as quickly as

possible,” Dullinger said. “He actually cannot serve any more out of that trailer.” He has now earned a second trailer. But the biggest success story of the fair belongs to a now-retired art teacher. Martha Rossini and her business partners ran a small frozen yogurt shop in downtown Minneapolis in 1978. They applied for a spot at the fair but were denied that year because the fair already had frozen yogurt. The next year, they added a second application, for cookies, using the chocolate chips they had on hand for the shop. Rossini got the phone call about a month before the start of the fair. “I hung up and basically screamed,” she said. “I was so thrilled.” The problem? She didn’t have a cookie recipe. Rossini cobbled one together from

her mother’s recipes, including a “secret ingredient” that gives the cookies their flavor. She also knew that she wanted to serve the cookies hot, noting that all the desserts in her household would be gone before they cooled off. “So many people love those warm cookies,” Rossini said. They opened a “stick stand,” a 9-by-11 white booth selling paper cones stacked with warm cookies. A friend down the block made the dough in a mixer and carried the dough to the stand, where they used a Kook- e-King machine to make the dough balls and baked them at a rate of 200 cookies every 12 minutes. They offered cookies on napkins to passersby as free samples. “They’d walk away a few steps, eat the cookie, and then

OCTOBER 2025 RESTAURANT BUSINESS

come back and buy a cone,” Rossini said. She wanted small cookies, similar to those she made at home. Served warm, they can be gobbled in one bite, and before you know it, you’ve eaten far more than you’d care to admit. Rossini and her business partners, Gary Olson and Neil and Brenda O’Leary, kept coming back after that first year. They kept their day jobs and pumped any profits back into the business. They added equipment and three years later bought a permanent site. Soon, Sweet Martha’s Cookie Jar became almost synonymous with the Minnesota State Fair. They bought a second, and more recently a third site, each strategically placed around the fairgrounds’ 322 acres. The third, on the north side of the fairgrounds, was added in part to lure people to that area. Each of those locations gets busy quick and remains busy, often drawing large crowds that clog the street. Sweet Martha’s employs up to 800 people for the fair, about 60% of whom return from previous years. They begin hiring as early as February. The three sites can now bake 44,000 cookies every 12 minutes, and on average make 1 million cookies a day. On busy days, the operation can churn out 3 million hot, fresh cookies. It now serves cookies in different sized cones, and also in half-gallon plastic buckets. Each one is filled as high as the cookies can be stacked, so users walk away balancing the cookie towers like precious cargo. It doesn’t always work. Within the fair’s first few days, the ground becomes pockmarked with round stains from cookies trampled under tens of thousands of feet. Rossini said she was never tempted by the opportunity to open a cookie shop outside the fair, recalling some of the challenges associated with the yogurt shop. And these days, Sweet Martha’s remains largely a Minnesota State Fair thing, though you can get its frozen cookie dough at grocers. “I knew, with the frozen yogurt shop, how much work that was,” she said. Rossini kept her day job, as an art teacher working with kids, until her retirement. Many of the fair’s food vendors work numerous events. Others, such as the pizza vendor Green Mill or French Meadow Bakery, have local restaurants. The Blue Barn, which sells items like blueberry basil lemonade, breakfast gnocchi and Chicken in a Waffle—a waffle cone filled with chicken tenders and gravy—is owned by the Blue Plate Restaurant Group, which operates several local restaurants. And some fair operators used to run restaurants. Jim O’Gara started his bar and grill in St. Paul in 1941. It would eventually become a local institution, known for its annual St. Patrick’s Day celebrations. The cartoonist Charles Schultz lived in one of the upstairs apartments with his father as a teenager. O’Gara sold the restaurant to his son, Tim, in 1972. Tim O’Gara sold it to his son Danny in 2004.

KRIS AND DANNY O’GARA. | PHOTO BY JONATHAN MAZE

By that point, however, O’Gara’s at the Fair got its start in a 17-by-17 booth in the fair’s “Food Building.” A popular Reuben Dog sold so well that they were able to pay off the debt to open that location. “We sold 27,000 units of that,” Danny O’Gara said. “Multiple times we came within 10 to 20 units of running out.” In 2010, they were given the opportunity to take over a permanent building on a prominent corner just inside the fair’s main entrance. O’Gara’s at the Fair is a fixture these days, one that fully embraces the fair’s desire for its booths to look good. The inside could well be an urban Irish pub, complete with a neon sign out front. A large wooden arch above the ordering counter inside features the phrase, “céad mile fáilte,” Celtic for a “hundred thousand welcomes,” a common posting on pubs in Ireland. Inside there are photos and mementos from the original restaurant, including the original sign, and plenty of bar seating. Outside there is a large patio with more bar seating, which surrounds much of the site, and another ordering counter. “I didn’t want it to feel like a state fair booth,” Danny O’Gara said. “I wanted it to feel like an Irish pub. That’s what it feels like when you’re inside.” The menu is more fair than Irish pub, though there is plenty of beer, including Guiness. There is also a mint Shamrock Slushie. The food offerings include burgers and a selection of small bites, like the Irish Tater Kegs, large, deep-fried tater tots made with corned beef, sauerkraut, Swiss cheese and sour cream. The new item this year is the Pot of Gold Potato Dumplings, cheesy garlic mashed potatoes folded into dumplings, deep fried and served with Top the Tater. It is made in conjunction with the Saturday Dumpling Company. Coming up with an idea can be tricky. If an item proves popular, O’Gara’s will sell 2,500 of them a day or more. So, they have to ensure they can handle that kind of demand when they get an idea for a unique fair food. In this case they had to make sure they could deep fry 2,000 orders of dumplings. “For us, it’s kind-of a challenge,” Danny said. “We’ve had thousands of great ideas, and people have recommended thousands. The challenge is how do you implement it and execute it.” Preparing for this is more year-round than you think. They start planning within a couple of months of the end of the fair and are in “full swing” by January. In late May, they start checking the equipment, which has been sitting all winter, to “work the kinks out.” O’Gara’s is open for two summertime car shows, but for the most part it is a fair-only thing now. They admit they are fortunate. Not everybody does that kind of business. “It’s a big risk,” Danny said. “People think that everybody out here is just killing it. That’s not always the case. We’re lucky to have a great location. “But whether you’re working in a tiny booth on the corner, or you’re Sweet Martha’s, everybody works exactly as hard as everybody else. Everybody is grinding and working.”

RESTAURANT BUSINESS OCTOBER 2025

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-daghbTHlbg&list=PLHP9dCrDvTU pTmuwzqk9a4w9-EBogeSXM&index=1

OPERATIONS

EVERY DAY, A CAR SLAMS INTO A RESTAURANT SOMEWHERE. OPERATORS NEED TO TAKE ACTION. Around the country, vehicles crash into buildings an average of 100 times a day, and often it’s a restaurant. Experts say there are steps operators can take to prevent death, injury, damage and the liability that can result.

I t happens just after they take their first bite of a sandwich. Two YouTube influencers sitting in a Houston restaurant enjoying a Happy Hour spread are suddenly hit by a car that comes crashing through the window. Glass comes raining down as the couple struggles to move away. The influencers, Patrick Blackwood and Nina Santiago, suffered injuries and were hospitalized, but they are happy to be alive. The video, of course, went viral. It seems like a freak accident. But, sadly, vehicle-into-building crashes happen all the time, by one estimate an average of about 100 times a day, somewhere around the country. And about 20% of the time, it’s a restaurant that gets hit, if only because there are just so many of them near streets and parking lots. In July, a 2-year-old was killed and 13 others were injured in a Portillo’s in Oswego, Illinois, in July after a car crashed through the restaurant’s front doors facing the park- ing lot. On Aug. 15 and 16 alone, three pizzerias were hit in separate states. A car veered off the street and slams into a pizzeria in New Jersey. In Louisiana, SUV plowed into an- other pizzeria in Covington, injuring several people, including an infant. In Greece, New York, a sedan crashed into yet another piz- zeria, seriously injuring a 79-year-old inside. And it happened again at another pizze-

ria in Cleveland, Ohio, this week. (The driver was reportedly an off-duty police officer.) The Storefront Safety Council, an organ- ization that has tracked vehicle-to-building incidents for a decade, said almost 6,000 res- taurants have been hit by cars, as of May this year. Representing about 20% of such acci- dents overall, restaurants are the third most common type of business to be hit by a vehi- cle, after retail stores (23%) and other loca- tions not specified (28%). Rob Reiter, co-founder of the Storefront Safety Council, said every incident should be a wakeup call for restaurant operators to take steps to prevent these sort of crashes from happening. “The industry is on notice. It’s not like this is sneaking up on anybody,” he said. “These accidents happen where our families work, play, shop and eat lunch. And you only get one family.” There are a number of design steps res- taurant operators should consider to reduce the risk of a car ending up in their restaurant dining room. But key among them is the in- stallation of some kind of sturdy bollard or barriers that allow pedestrians but would stop a vehicle. And the most vulnerable spot in any res- taurant parking lot? The handicapped park- ing spaces. Those, of course, are placed closest to the door of a restaurant to allow for easy access.

LISA JENNINGS

LISA.JENNINGS@INFORMA.COM

RESTAURANT BUSINESS OCTOBER 2025

ABOUT 20 PERCENT OF VEHICLE-TO-BUILDING CRASHES INVOLVE RESTAURANTS. PHOTO COURTESY OF THE STOREFRONT SAFETY COUNCIL

But Reiter said they also tend to be where accidents resulting from “pedal error” or “driver error” can occur, especially drivers who accidentally confuse the gas and brake pedals. When such parking spots are aimed directly at the front door or window seating of a restaurant, that can result in tragedy. But the reasons why drivers end up crashing into restaurants varies broadly. Of- ten drugs or alcohol are a factor, or a medi- cal incident. Many such crashes don’t cite a cause. Whatever the reason, properly designed bollards can offer protection. And it has to be the right kind of bollard. Some businesses have bollards that are de- signed simply to keep cars from parking on a sidewalk, for example, but Reiter said those may not be strong enough to stop a car, as captured by one podcaster video showing a car knocking a bollard over before hitting the window. The liability from such accidents can be huge, notes Reiter. In 2023, 7-Eleven agreed to pay $91 mil- lion to a man who was crushed in front of one of the chain’s stores outside Chicago. (Convenience stores are another business of- ten hit by cars.) And, though landlords may ultimately be responsible for parking lot safety features, it’s important for restaurants to negotiate such protections to show that they were re- quested, which could defer liability.

The family of the 2-year-old killed at Por- tillo’s this week filed a lawsuit in Cook Coun - ty Circuit Court seeking $50,000 in damages from the restaurant chain. Attorneys argued that there were no barriers, fences, walls or bumpers that would have slowed a vehicle from driving onto the sidewalk and through the restaurant’s glass doors. The lawsuit cites Storefront Safety Council data showing seven similar incidents in Illinois since 2015, including crashes at a Panera Bread, a Rosati’s Pizza and a Paris Bistro. And it has happened at other Portillo’s restaurants in Illinois twice before, including one in Downers Grove in 2014 and another in New Lenox in 2023. “Portillo’s knew or should have known, that the lack of a barrier to prevent a vehicle incursion was a dangerous condition,” the lawsuit said. The driver in that case was reportedly a 50-year-old woman. The lawsuit alleges she was maneuvering into a parking spot when she suddenly accelerated her 2011 Lincoln MKZ, jumping the curb and flying into the family of 2-year-old Finnegan McKee sitting inside. Portillo’s officials declined to comment, citing pending litigation. Following the pandemic-era trend of res- taurants serving guests outside, some states have passed legislation designed to encour- age business owners to put in safety barriers.

In California, for example, business owners that install vehicle barriers can get a dis- count on insurance. Michael Fleming, the former CEO of Far- rell’s Ice Cream, has long lobbied for stronger state laws to prevent vehicle-to-building ac- cidents. That’s because his business was hit. And someone was killed. In 2014, a Farrell’s ice cream parlour in Buena Park, California, was hit when an el- derly driver accidentally stepped on the gas instead of the brake while trying to park. The car hit a 71-year-old grandmother, who was killed. A teenager’s skull was fractured. Oth- ers suffered broken bones and scratches. Fleming, who is now retired, said, “It’s still the worst day of my life.” At the time, he didn’t know how common such accidents are, or the need for bollards. After the incident, he spent years lobbying for legislation and raising awareness in the restaurant industry about the issue. “I would never want any restaurant owner having to go through having a fire captain come up to you and say, ‘This is now a fatality accident,’” he said. Installing barriers is just not that expen- sive, he said. Not when you consider the ulti- mate cost of not doing it. “To know what I know now? I would have traded 10 times that, or more, not to have heard those words about a fatality,” he said.

OCTOBER 2025 RESTAURANT BUSINESS

COVER STORY

DELIVERY IS CHEAPER, BUT IT’S ALSO SLOWER In our second-annual look at restaurant delivery, third-party delivery fees to consumers have come down. But overall delivery times have increased.

G etting a restaurant meal delivered to your home is cheaper than it was a year ago, at least when it comes to the fees. But it’s also slower. That’s the biggest takeaway from a Restaurant Business/Nation’s Restaurant News exclusive study on the performance of delivery services, in conjunction with the mystery shopping firm Intouch Insight. Among the findings from the study: • Delivery services are getting better at estimating delivery times, but overall delivery times dropped; • Food orders from restaurants are less likely this year to be the right temperature; • Delivery fees charged to consumers dropped, but the menu prices are higher than they are in the restaurant; • Uber Eats had the highest overall satisfaction among third-party providers, but DoorDash scored highest in several key areas; • Convenience stores, a growing competitor for many fast-food chains, are closing the gap with restaurants when it comes to delivery on a number of different measures; • Delivery companies are offering fewer promotions, even as their fees have decreased, despite a value push by restaurants.

JONATHAN MAZE

JONATHAN.MAZE@INFORMA.COM

RESTAURANT BUSINESS OCTOBER 2025

ILLUSTRATION BY NICO HEINS/FIREFLY

To conduct the study, Intouch shoppers ordered delivery from 600 restaurants and convenience stores from each of the three major third-party delivery services, along with first-party delivery offered by companies in both industries. Among the first-party brands were pizza chains Domino’s, Papa Johns and Marco’s Pizza. But it also included several fast-food chains that contract with delivery companies to provide first-party service through chains’ own mobile apps and websites. Delivery has become a growing source of sales and traffic for restaurants over the past few years, thanks largely to the emergence of providers such as DoorDash, Uber Eats and Grubhub. The growing importance of the channel makes it important to measure companies for

the services they’re providing to consumers. The study reveals the strengths of delivery services while demonstrating their growing maturity, particularly in the way they interact with consumers. For instance, delivery is easy to order. Ninety seven percent of delivery orders were considered “easy,” and in most cases that ease increased. But every service scored at least 97% and first-party providers scored 95%. The delivery services are nearly perfect at getting the location right, with 99% of orders sent to the right spot, up from 98% last year. Both DoorDash and first-party brands were right on that 100% of the time. No service scored 100% a year ago. Meanwhile, delivery services are better at estimating the time it takes to get food to a customer’s door—even if they tend to promise

speedier delivery initially. Overall, 57% of customers said their delivery was early compared with the estimated delivery time, up from 54% a year ago, while 37% of orders were late, down from 42%. Each service saw improvement. Grubhub, at 63%, had the highest “early” rate, followed closely by first-party providers. The biggest improvement came from DoorDash, where the percentage of early orders increased to 58% from 54%. Yet while they the estimated delivery time is getting better, the delivery services are less likely to match the times they initially promise. AVERAGE DELIVERY TIMES Overall, 34% of deliveries came in slower

OCTOBER 2025 RESTAURANT BUSINESS

ILLUSTRATION BY DIMITRI MORSON/MIDJOURNEY

Order accuracy declined slightly overall, though most of the services improved compared with 2024.

Overall delivery fees decreased compared with 2024. Most services reduced their charges to consumers.

than the promoted time, up from 27%, while 62% of orders came in quicker than the promoted time, down from 72%. And the actual speed of delivery slowed, and overall satisfaction with speed of service at restaurants did, too. Overall, the average delivery time increased by nearly a minute at restaurants, to 34 minutes, 17 seconds, from 32 minutes, 25 seconds. Getting a delivery order from a restaurant is now nearly two minutes slower than it is to get one from a convenience store, where the average time is 32 minutes, 25 seconds. DoorDash remained the fastest overall, both for restaurants (30 minutes, 59 seconds) and convenience stores (27 minutes, 38 sec- onds). But DoorDash’s delivery to restau- rants slowed by more than four minutes. At Uber Eats, delivery times improved by more than two minutes, to 35 minutes, 47 seconds. First-party delivery was faster than any- body, at least from restaurants: The average delivery time was 30 minutes, 8 seconds. Overall satisfaction with speed of service slowed overall, with 91% of consumers sat-

isfied with the speed of service, down from 94% a year ago. Yet consumer satisfaction with Uber Eats’ speed dropped, despite its improvement in delivery times. Order accuracy at restaurants was down slightly, with 89% of orders accurate, com- pared with 90% a year ago. But DoorDash had the biggest drop on that front: 88% of its orders were accurate, down from 98% last year. Every other service saw improve- ments. ORDER ACCURACY TAKES A SLIGHT HIT But the food came in colder, perhaps because the delivery times were longer, at least at restaurants. Eighty-nine percent of restaurant orders were at the right temper- ature, down from 94% a year ago. Con- venience stores scored better on that one: 90% of their food orders were at the right temperature. That said, the fees charged to consumers were lower. The average delivery fee was $5.14, down from $5.96 a year ago. Door- Dash had the biggest drop in fees. Its average

delivery fee was $4.08, down from $5.85 a year ago. Uber Eats was the most expensive third-party provider at $5.79, down from $6.38. Yet first-party delivery was the most expensive to the consumer, at $5.95, compared with the average third-party fees of $4.86. DELIVERY FEES DECREASE And the prices charged for menu items offered on the delivery apps increased compared with a year ago. Many restaurants raise the prices they charge on the apps to make up for the fees they pay for delivery services, which can increase the price consumers pay. Overall, the price for main items ordered from third-party services was $1.85 higher than the regular menu item, compared with $1.71 a year ago. Delivery service markups were higher this year than a year ago on both Uber Eats and Grubhub. But they were lower on DoorDash than they were a year ago ($1.63 higher compared with $1.71). Check out the study here.

RESTAURANT BUSINESS OCTOBER 2025

SPECIAL REPORT

FIRST-PARTY DELIVERY MAY NOT HAVE THE ADVANTAGES RESTAURANTS THINK IT DOES

W hen it comes to delivery, restaurants almost always prefer customers to order directly, rather than through a third party. Orders placed through a restaurants’ own website or app are better for all involved, or so the thinking goes. Customers get a lower price by avoiding the markups and fees on third-party delivery apps, and restaurants get more data on those transactions and more control over the experience. But consumers themselves say they are almost equally happy ordering directly or through a third-party app like DoorDash, Uber Eats or Grubhub, suggesting that restaurants may need to do more to entice customers to use their direct channels. That’s according to a secret shopper study from researcher Intouch Insight, conducted exclusively for Restaurant Business and sister publication Nation’s Restaurant News. The analysis of transactions from more than 300 consumers found that those who ordered first-party delivery were satisfied about 88% of the time, while those using a third-party app had a satisfaction rate of 90%. And, notably, first party’s biggest expected benefit—price—was not really a factor. First-party customers paid an average of $26.28 for their food, while third-party users paid slightly more at $26.72. The difference was 44 cents, or less than 2%. (Shoppers were instructed to order one entree, a side and a drink. Third-party users could order from anywhere, while first- party customers could choose from a list of 10 quick-service options.) This pricing parity may not be as surprising as it seems. Third- party delivery apps have been working to make themselves more affordable for a couple of years. Compared to a similar Intouch Insight study conducted last year, third-party service fees declined an average of 82 cents in 2025, for an average total of $5.14. Fees were actually higher for first-party orders, clocking in at $5.96, on average. Customers did note price markups on third-party delivery apps. Entrees on the apps were $1.85 more expensive, on average, than they were on the restaurant’s regular menu. Restaurants often hike their prices on third-party delivery apps to help cover the commissions charged by the apps.

Direct ordering has lost its pricing edge versus third-party apps, and customers say they’re equally happy using either method, according to new research from Intouch Insight.

JOE GUSZKOWSKI

JOSEPH.GUSZKOWSKI@INFORMA.COM

RESTAURANT BUSINESS OCTOBER 2025

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